Europol recently published its latest Serious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) report, offering insights into various crime threats across Europe. While the report covers multiple topics, its section on digital content piracy is relatively brief, occupying only a small portion of its 100 pages. However, Europol’s prediction of a future “drop in demand” for pirated content has sparked significant discussion.

The Evolving Piracy Landscape

The report outlines how digital piracy has increasingly shifted toward mobile and web-based applications, largely driven by the growth of online streaming and over-the-top (OTT) services. Europol also highlights a concerning trend: piracy is becoming more intertwined with other forms of cybercrime. A key issue is the theft of login credentials from legitimate streaming subscribers, which are then sold on illicit marketplaces. According to Europol, phishing scams and data breaches serve as primary sources for these stolen credentials.

Will Piracy Demand Decline?

One of the report’s most debated aspects is Europol’s forecast that demand for pirated services will decrease in the future. This assertion stands out, especially considering the rising costs of legal streaming subscriptions and the increasing fragmentation of content across multiple platforms. Europol suggests that while financial concerns and limited content availability have pushed some users toward piracy, improved accessibility of legal streaming services and enhanced enforcement measures in some EU member states will ultimately reduce the number of piracy users.

Data Concerns and Contradictions

Despite Europol’s optimism, some experts have raised concerns about the data used to support this prediction. The report references older sources, including studies dating back to 2020, to justify its claims. This has led to skepticism, as the streaming landscape has evolved significantly in recent years with the emergence of new platforms like Disney+ and HBO Max. Additionally, a 2023 report from the EU Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO) indicated that online piracy was on the rise again, seemingly contradicting Europol’s projections.

Europol’s Response

In response to the confusion, Europol clarified its position. Claire Georges, the agency’s head of media relations, emphasized that the piracy decline prediction is based on Europol’s latest assessment of ongoing trends and future expectations. While older data is referenced in the report, it was used as context rather than the primary basis for the forecast. However, the inclusion of outdated statistics has contributed to mixed interpretations of Europol’s stance on piracy.

The Uncertain Future of Piracy

Although Europol’s SOCTA report presents an optimistic outlook, its conclusions leave room for debate. The assertion that piracy demand will decline hinges on current trends, yet the reliance on older data and the increasingly complex streaming market make the future of piracy uncertain. As content fragmentation and subscription costs continue to challenge consumers, whether legal platforms can successfully counteract piracy remains an open question.